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2022 Free Agents - Jaren Jackson, Jr.

Summary
During his first two seasons in the league, Jackson showed the potential to be one of the greatest shooting big men of all time. He hit 39% of his threes on high volume, and they weren't all easy spot-ups. The Grizzlies often run pindowns for Jackson like he's a shooting guard, and he can hit those shots on the move. He has a bit of a low release, but being 6'11" gives him some allowance there. Combine that with his ability to be a threat either popping or rolling out of high screen action, and Jackson could be one of the better second options in the league.

Jackson also has some defensive potential, but he hasn't proven yet that he can be a defensive anchor at the center position, as he has mostly played power forward thus far in his career. He blocks shots at a high rate and can move his feet well on the perimeter, which are signs that he can become a versatile defensive anchor. The consensus seemed to be that Jackson would eventually move to center, where his shooting would make him even more deadly, but that hasn't happened yet. Jackson fouls too often and doesn't rebound very well, which contribute to why he has not fully transitioned to the center position.

Jackson missed the majority of the '20-'21 season, but if he is able to get healthy and get back to the level of play he showed in '19-'20, he'll get a max contract.
 
Cap Considerations
Jackson will be a restricted free agent with a $27.5 million cap hold and a $12.1 million Qualifying Offer. If Jackson has another injury-plagued season and does not start 41 games or play 2,000 minutes in the regular season, Jackson will fail to meet the starter criteria and his QO will only be $7.2 million. Jackson's QO will almost certainly not come into play, as he will either sign a large contract with the Grizzlies or get a large offer sheet from another team, so Jackson settling for the QO is near certain not to happen.

If a player has a smaller cap hold than his starting salary, his team can use cap space to sign-free agents before using Bird Rights to re-sign its own free agents. Unfortunately for the Grizzlies, Jackson's cap hold is large enough that they won't be able to take advantage of this rule. If the Grizzlies re-sign Jackson, they could benefit from front-loading his contract. However, they will also have to factor in Ja Morant getting a big raise in 2023-2024.

For other teams, Jackson will be looking for a 4-year, $127.9 million max offer, or likely at least something around $100 million, and it would likely take something near the max in order for Memphis to consider not matching. In addition, adding a 15% trade bonus, a player option, and some advances on his salary could make it more difficult for Memphis to match.

Potential Teams: Grizzlies, Magic, Spurs, Thunder, Pelicans

Predicted Contract: 4-year, $110 million with the Grizzlies

Actual Contract: 4-year, $105 million with the Grizzlies

Jackson ended up signing an extension prior to the start of the regular season, and got similar money to what I projected. He potentially could have got the max if he had a good year, but he was able to mitigate some risk and lock down life-changing money.

Last updated: 10/19/2021

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