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2022 Free Agents - Gary Payton II

Summary
Payton has had cups of coffee in the NBA over the last several years, but just was never able to stick with a team. However, with his breakout season in '21-'22, he has proven that he belongs in the league.

Payton is an explosive athlete and a very good defender. If he played more minutes, he'd likely get consideration for making an All-Defense team. He plays much bigger than his 6'3" frame suggests, as he is long, athletic, and has some strength, all which help him guard multiple perimeter positions. 

Payton's offensive game could certainly use some polish, but the Warriors have found a role for him. Similar to what the Nets have done with Bruce Brown, the Warriors will often use Payton as the roll man in pick-and-roll. Payton is also athletic and can catch lobs hanging around the dunker spot as well. He struggles from outside, as he's a 33% three-point shooter for his career, and defenses are happy to ignore him when he's spotting up. 

Despite missing a majority of the playoffs with a broken elbow, Payton made meaningful contributions when he did play, and was even sometimes in the closing lineup for the 2022 champs. He may be more than just a luxury when the Warriors are considering the cost of re-signing Payton, as they may need him to continue to compete given how some of their other role players played in the 2022 playoffs.

Teams will also want to consider if Payton will be as effective in other situations as he has been in Golden State, or if he has flourished primarily due to the Warriors system and playing alongside Steph Curry and Draymond Green. Payton is already 29 years old, so he's not exactly a young prospect, but he's looking to be in line for his first significant NBA contract. 
 
Cap Considerations
Payton will be an unrestricted free agent with a $1.8 million cap hold and Early Bird rights. Using his Early Bird rights, the Warriors can offer Payton a starting salary of 5% above the average salary (around $10.9 million), which should be enough to retain him.

However, given the Warriors' high luxury tax bill, re-signing him could cost them exponentially in luxury tax penalties. Therefore, other teams will have a chance at prying Payton away from Golden State without a huge offer, especially since it's possible that Payton prioritizes money given he has been on minimum contracts and 10-days contracts his entire career.

If Payton demands a starting salary of more than the full $10.3 million Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception, only teams with cap space will be able to sign him. However, it's likely that Payton, could be had for the full MLE or less, including maybe the Taxpayer MLE.

Potential Teams: Hawks, Warriors, Lakers, Jazz, Nuggets

Predicted Contract: 3-year, $20 million with the Hawks

Actual Contract: 3-year, $26.1 million (3rd year player option) with the Trailblazers

Payton ended up getting a solid, near-8 figure per-year contract with Portland, and as I expected the Warriors were not quite willing to go that high due to luxury tax concerns.

Last updated: 7/10/2022

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