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2022 Free Agents - Mitchell Robinson

Summary
Robinson showed a lot of promise early in his career, but hasn't quite developed in the last couple years as much as Knicks fans would hope, as the shine on him as somewhat worn off. While Robinson has legitimate shot-blocking ability (including the knack for blocking jump shots), he hasn't turned those defensive tools into becoming an elite rim protector. That kind of impact comes from good positional awareness and high basketball IQ, which Robinson hasn't shown he has quite yet.

On offense, Robinson is a solid lob threat, but not an elite one. His free throw shooting has regressed each season so far, which is worrisome as he has shot a terrible 49% in '21-'22. He really hasn't shown any ability to consistently finish inside unless he's dunking the ball. That's okay considering he doesn't force shots and still overall has a good finishing rate inside, but it limits his upside on the offensive end. 

Robinson is probably a starting caliber center going forward, but it seems unlikely he will be an above-average starter, let alone a top-10 center in the league.

 
Cap Considerations
Robinson will be an unrestricted free agent with a $1.8 million cap hold and full Bird Rights. Since the Knicks will likely be operating over the salary cap, they will retain Robinson's Bird rights, and have no restrictions on re-signing him. If a player has a smaller cap hold than his starting salary, his team can use cap space to sign-free agents before using Bird Rights to re-sign its own free agents. Since the Knicks will likely not have cap room, Robinson's cap hold will not play a factor.

Depending on how close the Knicks are to the luxury tax after free agency, if Robinson is brought back by the Knicks on a multi-year contract they could benefit from frontloading his contract, as it could give them additional flexibility in the future.

If Robinson demands a starting salary of more than the full $10.5 million Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception, only teams with cap space will be able to sign him (unless a sign-and-trade is completed), but it's possible that he could be had for the full MLE or less.

Potential Teams: Knicks, Hornets, Raptors, Trailblazers, Pistons

Predicted Contract: 4-year, $45 million with the Knicks

Actual Contract: 4-year, $60 million with the Knicks

Robinson did better than I expected, and I'm not sure where else Robinson was going to get above the full MLE, but I still think this is a solid contract for both sides as long as Robinson can stay healthy.

Last updated: 7/1/2022

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