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2023 Free Agents - Andrew Wiggins

Summary
Wiggins had a career year in '21-'22, starting in the All-Star game and playing a vital role in the Warriors' 2022 championship run. After a career of mostly empty stats and below-average defense, Wiggins has now become one of the better two-way wings in the NBA. I don't expect him to make more All-Star teams going forward (he got a little lucky with the fan vote in 2022, and was on the outside looking in on the All-Star team altogether for most people), but he will be in high demand as a free agent in 2023.

He has become a really nice secondary creator - someone that can create a decent look late in the shot clock, or attack with an advantage created by the initial action. Even when Wiggins doesn't fully beat his defender, he has the size and strength to just rise over him for a short jumper or power through him for a layup. He has really nice body control in the lane, and uses that on spin moves and short turnarounds. He can absorb contact, as defenders often just bounce off him when he attacks the rim. He doesn't get as many dunks as he did when he was younger, but he can still posterize defenders when he gets a head of steam. 

Wiggins had the most efficient season of his career in '21-'22 at 54.3% eFG%, per Cleaning the Glass. While he got to the rim less frequently than previously, he finished really well from there at 72%. He also has taken more threes since joining the Warriors, and has cut out some of the midrange jumpers that hurt his efficiency early in his career. He hit a career high 39% from three in '21-'22, and nothing he did seems like an outlier season (he also hit 38% from three in '20-'21). Wiggins has had more of his outside shots be spot-up attempts since joining the Warriors, so there's a chance that if he were in a different role he could regress to the low-mid 30s that he shot in Minnesota.

Defensively, Wiggins was often tasked with defending the opponent's best perimeter player, and did not look overmatched in that role. He has the size to guard multiple positions and bother shots with his length. He also has the lateral mobility to stay in front of his man as a defender. The Warriors had a 107 defensive rating with him on the court, and it's safe to say that he was a big part of their 2nd ranked defense. He also rebounds well on the offensive end, and while his defensive rebounding rate is poor he still had some big rebounding games for the Warriors in the playoffs.

Wiggins will be one of the more interesting free agents in 2023 if the Warriors don't extend him before then. In the past, it has been tough to evaluate role players on the Warriors because it's unclear how much of their success would translate in a different situation. Wiggins is a souped-up version of that, as he is still a two-way wing that is a legitimate NBA starter. However, he probably won't be seen by other teams as a star level addition that be the primary (or even secondary) offensive option. 
 
Cap Considerations
Wiggins will be an unrestricted free agent with a $39.9 million cap hold and full Bird Rights, meaning the Warriors will have no restrictions on re-signing him. Since the Warriors will be operating over the cap, his cap hold is not really relevant.

Due to the Warriors' high luxury tax penalties, re-signing Wiggins could cost them a lot in luxury tax penalties, so he could potentially be pulled away from Golden State without having to give him a huge offer.

Since Wiggins's starting salary will be above the $11.3 million Nontaxpayer Mid-Level Exception, only teams with cap space will be able to sign him. If Wiggins and an above-the-cap team have mutual interest, a sign-and-trade could be worked out. I don't expect Wiggins to get max-level money, but he could get close. His max with the Warriors would be 5-years, $233 million, and his max with another team would be 4-years, $172 million.

Potential Teams: Warriors, Grizzlies, Kings, Pacers, Rockets

Predicted Contract: 4-year, $150 million with the Warriors

Actual Contract: 4-year, $109 million (4th year player option) with the Warriors

Wiggins ended up signing an extension prior to the start of the '22-'23 season. He got considerably less than I expected, but it's a reasonable decision to lock down that much money now in a place he likes playing. Plus he was able to get a player option.

Last updated: 10/15/2022

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