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2023 Free Agents - Mike Conley

Summary
Conley has had some ups and downs during his post-prime stint with the Jazz and now Timberwolves. After struggling in his first season in Utah, he made his first All-Star appearance in 2021, as he helped lead the Jazz to the best overall record in the league that season. However, he had some real struggles in the playoffs. He missed essentially the entire Clippers series in 2021 as the Jazz lost in six games. Then in 2022, he played very poorly in the Jazz's loss to the Mavericks, averaging only 9 points per game and under 5 assists on 20% 3-point shooting and a dreadful 38% eFG%. 

Despite some playoff struggles, Conley has been a very efficient regular season player over the last three seasons. He isn't the lead ball-handler that he was during his days in Memphis, which allows him to pick his spots more judiciously.

Conley recorded a career high in eFG% at 55.9% in '20-'21, which was in the 84th percentile for his position, per Cleaning the Glass. That dipped slightly to 54.5% in '21-'22, but that was still in the 86th percentile for his position, and has now dipped to 53.9% in '22-'23. He has hit over 40% from three over the last three seasons, and found his touch on his floater again after struggling with that in his first season in Utah. Conley also developed real chemistry with Rudy Gobert in the pick-and-roll, which took time after playing with a very different center stylistically in Marc Gasol for so long.

Defensively, Conley has become a liability at this stage of his career, particularly in the playoffs. He can hold his own and can get by with IQ and positional awareness during the regular season, but his size hurts him, making him a target when switched onto bigger wings. It's pretty difficult to be a great defender at Conley's height and build, and his age isn't helping either. 

Conley will be going into his age 36 season as a possible free agent in 2023, so teams will likely be wary of giving him a big long-term contract. Conley can still be an effective player, but his weaknesses are becoming more glaring and he'll likely be a below-average starting point guard going forward.
 
Cap Considerations
Conley's $24.4 million salary for 2022-2023 is only $14.3 million guaranteed, and if he is waived he will become an unrestricted free agent and the Timberwolves will have no form of Bird rights on him. I don't expect the Timberwolves to waive Conley, since his guaranteed salary is high enough that the benefit of waiving him is not that high.

If Conley becomes a free agent, only teams with cap space would be able to pursue him if his market is above the full $12.4 million Non-Taxpayer MLE. However, if he is waived it's possible that Conley could be had for the full MLE or less, and thus teams without cap space could have interest in him as well.

Potential Teams: Timberwolves, Bulls, Raptors, Spurs, Wizards

Predicted Contract: Not waived: $24.4 million
If waived: 2-year, $20 million with the Bulls

Actual Contract: Not waived: $24.4 million
As expected, Conley was not waived and his contract was fully-guaranteed, so he'll hit free agency in 2024.

Last updated: 6/30/2023

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