Summary
After having a really rough rookie year, Poole showed some progression during his second season, and really had a breakout year in '21-'22. He averaged 18.5 points per game, and did so on pretty good efficiency, posting a true shooting percentage just under 60%. As someone that was looking like a bust after his rookie season, Poole has quickly ascended to a rising start, and someone that will demand a big contract once his rookie scale contract ends in 2023.

Poole has the ability to score at all levels. According to Cleaning the Glass, Poole shot 66% at the rim in '21-'22, 45% from midrange, and 37% from three - all above-average marks. Those numbers only improved in the playoffs. Combine that with his 92.5% free-throw shooting, and Poole truly had a great scoring season. He has quickness and the ball-handling ability to create space off the dribble, and has pullups, stepbacks, and sidesteps all in his bag to get shots off. He also has deep range. 

The non-scoring aspects of Poole's offensive game could use some improvement. He turns it over too much, and isn't much of a playmaker for others. That hasn't been his role thus far, and he's been good enough in that regard to at least still operate well in the Warriors' heavy ball movement system, but those weaknesses could become more apparent if he were to take on a larger role for a different team.

Poole will likely always be a target on defense in the playoffs, but as long as he is surrounded by enough defensive talent, all he has to do is survive out there. Poole just doesn't have a lot of size or length to guard bigger wings, and just hasn't been a defensive-minded player throughout his career, making mistakes rotating or not moving his feet well enough laterally to stay in front of his man. He was attacked consistetly in the series against Memphis, as Ja Morant attacked him relentlessly in pick-and-roll. Poole will almost always be hiding on the opponent's weakest offensive option, and the more he plays against second units the easier it will be for him to survive defensively. 

Despite his success, there are still some real questions about how good Poole can be. Can he be an All-Star caliber player, or at least someone on the border of an All-Star team like C.J. McCollum or Jamal Murray, or is he more of a modern Lou Williams / Jamal Crawford type, that can provide scoring off the bench but is overmatched in a primary or secondary role? I tend to think he's in the middle of that spectrum, and likely leaning more toward the latter, but Poole has proven doubters wrong before and could prove me wrong again.
 
Cap Considerations
Poole will be a restricted free agent with a $11.7 million cap hold, $5.8 million Qualifying Offer, and full Bird Rights. If Poole plays 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games this season, he could raise his Qualifying Offer to $8.5 million. I wouldn't expect Poole's QO to come into play, as he will likely sign a long-term contract with Golden State or a long-term offer sheet with another team. If a player has a smaller cap hold than his starting salary, his team can use cap space to sign-free agents before using Bird Rights to re-sign its own free agents. Since the Warriors will likely not have cap room, Poole's cap hold will not play a factor.

For other teams, Poole will be looking for a contract with a starting salary certainly higher than the full MLE of $11.4 million, so only teams with cap space will be able to sign him, unless a sign-and-trade is worked out. With the Warriors' luxury tax concerns, they may be reluctant to match a large offer sheet for Poole. 

I'm sure Poole and his agent will be using Anfernee Simons, who got 4-years, $100 million in 2022, as an example of someone that he should get more than, and it would likely take something more than that for the Warriors not to match. However, restricted free agency can be a tricky situation if the player's current team plays hardball, because it's difficult to convince other teams to give an offer sheet if they feel like the contract will just get matched, and may feel like it's an overpay in order to avoid that match occurring. In addition, the team signing him to an offer sheet adding a 15% trade bonus, a player option, and some advances on his salary could make it more difficult for Golden State to match.