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2023 Free Agents - Myles Turner

Summary
Turner may not be an All-Star level player, but he has the ability to fit into a lot of situations due to his ability to stretch the floor on offense and protect the rim on defense, the latter of which likely being the most important skill for a center in today's NBA. Frankly, it's hard not to find many situations where Turner wouldn't fit in, which can often be rare for centers. For examples, many centers that can't stretch the floor don't fit in well next to power forwards that don't do the same, and centers that don't protect the rim need to play with good perimeter defense or secondary rim protection at the forward position.

Offensively, Turner spends most of his time either spotting up or acting as a pick-and-pop big. He's only a career 35% 3-point shooter, so he's not exactly someone that defenders are terrified to leave open, even though he has the ability to hit from outside. He is currently shooting a career high 39% from three in '22-'23, but that may be just small sample size theater. 

Turner can also operate as a roll man in pick-and-roll, and can finish lobs when open despite not being a great vertical athlete. He has nice touch inside, as his 76% shooting at the rim in '21-'22 was a career high, according to Cleaning the Glass, and has continued at a good rate of 73% thus far in '22-'23. The Pacers scored 1.16 points per possession out of Turner's post-ups in '21-'22, which was near the top of the league, per Synergy.

Defensively, Turner is is one of the best shot-blockers in the league, and a couple years ago was in the running for Defensive Player of the Year. It's not out of the question that if he plays a full healthy year, which he hasn't done since '19-'20, he could get back into the DPOY race. He's not great defending on the perimeter, but is not bad there either, which is a win for a guy that is such a force inside defensively. 

Turner's rebounding rates are low on both ends of the court, but part of that is due to his role offensively as he spends a lot of time outside the arc. Defensively, his rebounding rate was likely hurt by playing next to another traditional big for most of his career, but the Pacers have also often been below-average in giving up offensive rebounds, so his low rebound rate may be indicative of poor rebounding rather than just strong teammates.

Turner is an above-average starting center, and will look to get paid like on in 2023. He will be 27 years old as a free agent, so there's a chance this is his best chance at a big long-term contract before he starts to decline in his thirties. I don't expect Turner's game to age quickly, and as the team signing him I wouldn't be too scared of the back end of a long-term contract unless the number started too big.
 
Cap Considerations
Turner will be an unrestricted free agent with a $27 million cap hold and full Bird Rights, meaning the Pacers will have no restrictions on re-signing him. As Turner's cap hold exceeds the salary he will get in free agency, his cap hold is not really relevant. If the Pacers re-sign Turner, his cap hold will be replaced by his starting salary, and the Pacers may still have some cap space available depending on his salary and what happens with their other free agents.

For other teams, since Turner's starting salary will be above the $11.4 million Nontaxpayer Mid-Level Exception, only teams with cap space will be able to sign him. If Turner and an above-the-cap team have mutual interest, a sign-and-trade could be worked out.

Potential Teams: Lakers, Pacers, Bulls, Rockets, Mavericks

Predicted Contract: 4-year, $110 million with the Lakers

Actual Contract: 2-year, $58 million extension with the Pacers

The Pacers used their cap space to give Turner a renegotiation and extension, allowing them to give Turner $17 million additional in '22-'23 and $41 million over the next two seasons.

Last updated: 1/28/2023

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