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2024 Free Agents - Dennis Smith, Jr.

Summary
The early years of Smith's career went about as poorly as possible for the 2017 lottery pick. Despite starting in every game he played for Dallas in his rookie season, he was wildly inefficient, as his 44.8% eFG% was near the bottom of the league, according to Cleaning the Glass.

That efficiency improved slightly in his second season, but after the Mavs drafted Luka Doncic and handed him the keys, Smith was no longer a great fit and was traded to New York in the Kristaps Porzingis trade. Smith struggled in New York, missing games and continuing to struggle with his efficiency. He was traded to Detroit in '20-'21, but didn't show much there either or in Portland in '21-'22.

It just doesn't seem like the playmaking instincts are there for Smith. His turnover rate has consistently been below-average. However, Smith is starting to finally make plays that show off his athleticism that made him such an intriguing prospect coming out of college. He shot a career high 64% at the rim in '22-'23 (which continued in '23-'24 at 63%), and uses his athleticism to elevate and glide to the rim.

If Smith can hit pullup jumpers at a solid rate and continue his solid finishing at the rim, he may be able to stick around in the NBA. However, he still shows some real timid plays on offense, as he often passes up shots and shows an overall lack of aggression. The jumper hasn't been falling, as he shot 26% from midrange and 30% from three in '23-'24.

While the offense hasn't quite come along, Smith has been very good defensively. He pressures ball-handlers and works hard on that end to stay in front. He also has consistently put up good steal and block rates throughout his career. 

Smith is still only 25, and has shown enough in recent seasons as a decent backup guard that he could have some real interest as a free agent in 2024.
 
Cap Considerations
Smith will be an unrestricted free agent with a $2.1 million cap hold and Non-Bird Rights. This means that the highest starting salary the Nets could offer him using the Non-Bird Exception is $3.4 million. This should be enough to retain Smith, since he settled for the minimum to come to Brooklyn.

Other teams will have multiple ways to sign Smith as even teams without cap space could use the Non-Taxpayer MLE, Room MLE, or possibly even the Taxpayer MLE or Bi-Annual Exception to sign him. It's also possible that Smith only gets minimum offers again.

Potential Teams: Nets, Wizards, Heat, Spurs, Jazz

Predicted Contract: 1-year, $2.8 million ($2.1 million cap hit) with the Nets

Last updated: 6/11/2024

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