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2024 Free Agents - Obi Toppin

Summary
Toppin was a late bloomer that did not have any Division 1 offers coming out of high school, but after a growth spurt and a post-grad prep school year he found himself at Dayton. He had a monster redshirt Sophomore season in '19-'20 and was selected 8th overall in 2020. He has been slightly underwhelming relative to where he was drafted, but has shown flashes of being a productive player and could become a high-level role player and a decent starter. 

At 6'9" with high-level athleticism, Toppin is an above-the-rim finisher. He has hit 73% of hit shots at the rim thus far in his career, according to Cleaning the Glass. When given an open lane and a full head of steam, he's going to finish over or through any defenders that are semi-late to rotate. He's a real lob threat out of pick-and-roll, baseline cuts, just hanging out in the dunker spot, or in transition. He runs the floor extremely hard, which creates dunks for him or collapses the defense to create openings for others. He doesn't just run hard on offense either, as he gives a ton of effort to get back on defense too. He has been able to keep up that energy even as he averaged a career high 21 minutes per game in '23-'24.

Toppin is a pretty dependent player. While he has some ball-handling ability and can attack off a face-up, he doesn't have a ton of moves and isn't someone that will create offense himself. Toppin has improved as a shooter, going from 29% from 3 in his rookie season to 41% in '23-'24, but is still not considered a real threat from outside. That level of shooting in '23-'24 led to overall really good efficiency, as Toppin posted a 68% true shooting this past season.

Going into the 2020 draft, the biggest questions about Toppin were about his defense, and he has yet to really answer any of those. He doesn't defend well on the perimeter, and doesn't really provide rim protection either. He just doesn't move laterally very well, has poor closeouts, and his effort and instincts on the defensive end are poor. He has posted really low block rates, despite having the athleticism to really sky for blocks. Part of that is him playing almost exclusively at power forward, and thus just not being around the rim as much. Toppin also doesn't rebound all that well, but that also could be partially due to the lineups he has played with. 

Overall, Toppin is a bit of a tweener between the power forward and center position because of his defensive limitations noted above. But he can still provide value with his effort, rim running, and occasional shooting.
 
Cap Considerations
Toppin will be a restricted free agent with a $20.4 million cap hold, $7.7 million Qualifying Offer, and full Bird Rights. I wouldn't expect Toppin's QO to come into play, but I wouldn't completely rule it out considering it may not be that much lower than his market value starting salary. 

If a player has a smaller cap hold than his starting salary, his team can use cap space to sign-free agents before using Bird Rights to re-sign its own free agents. Since Toppin's cap hold is likely higher than his starting salary, the Pacers won't be able to take advantage of his rule.

Depending on how close the Pacers are to the luxury tax after free agency, or how much cap space they need if they operate under the cap, if Toppin is brought back by the Pacers on a multi-year contract they could benefit from frontloading his contract, as it could give them additional flexibility in the future. 

From other teams, Toppin will be looking for a 4-year, $55+ million offer, and it would likely take something near that in order for Indiana to not match. In addition, the team signing him to an offer sheet adding a 15% trade bonus, a player option, and some advances on his salary could make it more difficult for Indiana to match. If Toppin gets offers above the full MLE, only teams with cap space will be able to sign him. However, there's a chance he could be had for the full MLE, which would be 4-years, $55.3 million, in which case teams without cap space would be able to sign him.

Potential Teams: Pacers, Hornets, Spurs, Nets, Wizards

Predicted Contract: 3-year, $45 million with the Pacers

Actual Contract: 4-year, $60 million with the Pacers

I got the annual value exactly right, but Toppin also got an extra year.

Last updated: 7/14/2024

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