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2024 Free Agents - Aaron Wiggins

Summary
After a 3-year stint at Maryland, Wiggins entered the 2021 draft and was selected late in the 2nd round, going 55th overall to OKC. He originally signed a two-way contract with the Thunder, but after getting legitimate playing time during his rookie season, he later signed a standard NBA contract.

There were multiple reasons why Wiggins played nearly 1200 minutes of non-garbage time and started 35 games, including some COVID absences and the Thunder shutting down some players during the final stretch of the season. However, Wiggins wasn't just gifted minutes, as he legitimately had some really nice moments, looking like a potential rotation-level wing, and continued to get minutes in '22-'23 when the Thunder were more competitive. His minutes declined though in '23-'24, but he was still in the playoff rotation.

Physically, Wiggins has good size for a wing at 6'6" with a 6'10" wingspan. He uses that size to finish well at the rim, hitting a solid 67%. His outside shot needs to improve for him to be a legitimate threat from outside. He only hit 38% of his 3-pointers, improving each season and even hitting 45% in '23-'24, but it has been on low volume. He isn't much of a play-maker for others, as he's a scorer by nature. He can get to his shot at multiple levels, and while he's not someone that is likely to be a primary creator, he does have some off the dribble ability. 

Defensively, Wiggins has good size and athleticism, which gives him the potential to be a solid, versatile defender. He hasn't really utilized those physical tools yet though on defense. He can get beat off the dribble by quicker guards, but has started to become more disruptive by improving his steal and block rates.

Wiggins is under contract through the '24-'25 season, but the Thunder have some interesting options with him, as noted below.
 
Cap Considerations
Wiggins has a $2.1 million team option for 2024-2025, and the Thunder may decline this option to make Wiggins a restricted free agent in 2024, rather than picking up the option and having Wiggins hit unrestricted free agency in 2025. If the Thunder decline the option, Wiggins will be a restricted free agent with a $2.4 million cap hold and Qualifying Offer. If the Thunder and Wiggins agree to a deal, they could also rescind his QO, which would lower his cap hold to $2.1 million.

The Thunder may not will feel the need to lock Wiggins down on a long-term deal in 2024, and would might simply pick up his option. However, especially since he will have a low Qualifying Offer, the Thunder could use cap space to sign free agents, then lock-down Wiggins on a larger long-term contract, without really sacrificing any cap space. 

Wiggins will also be eligible for a renegotiation and extension in February 2025, similar to what Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis have done in recent years. If the Thunder are still sitting on cap space in February, they could give bump up Wiggins' '24-'25 salary, and then extend him in the future. If they go that method, they could front-load the contact even more than normal, as his '25-'26 salary could be as low as 60% of his '24-'25 salary. This could allow the Thunder to have Wiggins' salary be lower once they become more expensive in future years. 

Realistically, there is not a scenario where Wiggins is a free agent and available to other teams in 2024.

Potential Teams: Thunder

Predicted Contract: 3-year, $25 million with the Thunder

Actual Contract: 5-year, $45 million (plus $2 million in unlikely bonuses, 5th year team option) with the Thunder

Wiggins got a similar per-year value to what I projected, and the Thunder did well by having his contract decline over time, and got a team option in the final year.

Last updated: 7/14/2024

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