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2025 Free Agents - Aaron Gordon

After spending the first six and a half seasons of his career in Orlando as more of an on-ball perimeter player, Gordon was traded to Denver in 2021 and fit in perfectly as their do-it-all, role-player power forward. He has made a killing cutting baseline or just hanging around the dunker spot, catching lobs from Nikola Jokic. If his man creeps up just a step to high to help off of him, it's over for the defense as Jokic will find him with a perfect pass. He has shot over 70% at the rim each season since joining the Nuggets, which is a good number for a center, let alone a forward. He also posts good offensive rebounding rates. Gordon has just enough on-ball juice to be effective attacking closeouts or in transition. He posts good assist numbers for someone in his role. Gordon generally hits just enough 3s to keep the defense honest. He hit 40% from 3 in the playoffs in 2023 when the Nuggets won the championship, and even hit 41% in the 2024 playoffs, albeit on a small sample size. He did only shoot 29% from 3 in the '23-'24 regular season though, which is worst he has shot since his rookie season. If that continues, defenses may just sag off and let him fire away, which would hurt the Nuggets' spacing. Defensively, Gordon has never been an All-NBA level defender, but has been just a tier below that since joining Denver. He has often been tasked with guarding the best opposing perimeter player, even matching up against elite guards in certain matchups. He has the right blend of quickness, size, and strength, which makes him a very good multi-positional defender. He doesn't rack up a ton of steals, but posts a good block rate for a forward, and can provide secondary rim protection when rotating down low. Gordon will be nearing age 30 as a potential free agent in 2025. He has shown he can be an elite role player, and has a willingness to accept that role. As long as he can hit enough shots to keep defenses respecting him, I would expect him to still be a solid starter throughout his next contract.

Summary

Gordon has a $23.8 million player option for '25-'26, and if he declines that option he will be an unrestricted free agent with a $35.8 million cap hold and full Bird Rights, meaning the Nuggets will have no restrictions on re-signing him. Since the Nuggets will most likely be operating over the cap, and because his cap hold is greater than his expected starting salary, his cap hold is not really relevant. Due to the Nuggets' luxury tax concerns, re-signing Gordon could cost them a lot in luxury tax penalties, so he could potentially be pulled away from Denver without having to give him a huge offer, although his player option complicates that (as he would likely demand at least what he opted out of). Since Gordon's starting salary will be above the $14.1 million Nontaxpayer Mid-Level Exception, only teams with cap space will be able to sign him. If Gordon and an above-the-cap team have mutual interest, a sign-and-trade, or opt-in-and-trade could be worked out.

Cap Considerations

OG Anunoby (5 years, $212.5 million, 2024) Jerami Grant (4+1 years, $160 million, 2023) Tobias Harris (2 years, $52 million, 2024)

Player/Contract Comparison

Potential Teams: Nuggets, Rockets, Hornets, Wizards, Grizzlies

Predicted Contract: 4-year, $140 million with the Nuggets

Actual Contract: 4-year, $132.9 million with the Nuggets

Gordon ended up signing an extension in which he opted in to his $23.8 million salary for '25-'26, and then added three additional years after that at the maximum allowed, which in total was fairly close to what I projected

Last updated: 10/22/2024

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