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2025 Free Agents - Nickeil Alexander-Walker

In 2019, Alexander-Walker was whipping off-hand, live-dribble passes all around the Thomas & Mack Center in Summer League, exciting fans with his play as a just-drafted rookie. He made the Summer League First Team that year, and was looking like a steal as a pick outside of the lottery. However, he struggled to be consistently good early in his career, but really hit his stride once joining Minnesota in 2023, and even was in the regular rotation for Minnesota in the 2024 playoffs when they made the conference finals.  Offensively, the efficiency numbers were pretty poor in his first three seasons, with Alexander-Walker posting a 49% true shooting from 2019-2022. He really struggled to finish at the rim, hitting only 51% of his attempts, according to Cleaning the Glass. He also struggled from 3, less than 33% of his attempts. However, he saw some improvement in '22-'23, and then he had a career year in '23-'24 from an efficiency perspective, hitting 40% from 3, 63% at the rim, and posting a career high 58% true shooting. Alexander-Walker has solid playmaking instincts but just hasn't been able to fully actualize those abilities. He doesn't have a great handle to beat his defender off-the-dribble, and his lack of high-level shot-making allows defenders to sag off just enough to keep him in front. However, now that he has settled into more of a 3-and-D wing rather than an on-ball playmaker, those deficiencies aren't as critical anymore. He also has improved his shot selection, often settling for fewer tough contested midrange jumpers. Defensively, Alexander-Walker has become a legitimately really good defender, and was a real contributor to the Timberwolves having by far the best defense in '23-'24. He's long, and has solid size for a guard. He can use his length to block shots or get deflection/steals. His attention in off-ball situations defensively has also improved. Alexander-Walker has seemed to turn a corner in his career, and has established himself as a legitimate rotation-level player. If he continues to improve his efficiency, or becomes more of an on-ball threat, he could become a surefire starter. As a 26 year old in the summer of 2025, his next contract could take him through his prime, which might make him a very sought-after free agent.

Summary

Alexander-Walker will be an unrestricted free agent with a $8.2 million cap hold and full Bird Rights, meaning the Timberwolves will have no restrictions on re-signing him. Since the Timberwolves are likely to operate over the cap, his cap hold is not really relevant. For other teams, if Alexander-Walker demands a starting salary of more than the full $14.1 million Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception, only teams with cap space will be able to sign him, unless a sign-and-trade is worked out. However, it's likely that Alexander-Walker could be had for the full MLE or slightly less, including possibly the $5.7 million Taxpayer MLE, which would make him available to almost every team.

Cap Considerations

Gary Harris (2-1 years, $26 million, 2022) Alex Caruso (4 years, $37 million, 2021) Jevon Carter (2+1 years, $18 million, 2023)

Player/Contract Comparison

Potential Teams: Hornets, Timberwolves, Cavaliers, Hawks, Spurs

Predicted Contract: 3-year, $36 million with the Hornets

Last updated: 8/26/2024

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