Last updated: 9/30/2019
Last updated: 9/30/2019
Last updated: 9/30/2019
2025 Free Agents - Jimmy Butler
Despite not ever being a real MVP candidate or someone considered to be in the inner circle of elite players, Butler has been just outside that tier for the past half decade. There may not be a player that has had as much of a difference between his regular season performance and his playoff performance. He has only made an All-Star team twice in the past six seasons, but part of that has been due to injuries, slow starts, or simply some selections mistakes, in my opinion. However, he has led the Heat to two unlikely Finals appearances, and one conference finals appearance, in the last five seasons, and looked like a top-5 player during those runs. Offensively, Butler has never been an elite high-volume scorer, but he uses his strong frame and intelligence to get to his spots and finish inside or from the midrange. He uses his great footwork and pump fakes to create openings to get shots off or draw free throws. He knows when to power through or shoot over a smaller defender, and when he can go by someone slower than him. Butler has never been an elite playmaker, but has improved in that area over time, and has averaged just under six assists per game since joining Miami. His assist rate is near the top of the league for a wing. He also is a pretty low-turnover player given his usage, and has a good offensive rebound rate. Butler has never been a high-volume outside shooter, taking about two attempts per game over the past several years. After only hitting 25% of his 3's from 2019-2022, he has improved the last couple seasons, including hitting a career high 41% in '23-'24. If that continues, it will help him stay an efficient scorer as he ages into his mid-to-late 30s. Defensively, Butler has taken a step back from the All-Defense level he was at when he was younger, but is still a positive on that end. His steal rate has been near of the top of the league for his position over the past several years, despite taking a dip in '23-'24. He still has the size and quickness to guard multiple positions. He's not someone you want guarding the opposing team's best player anymore, but he can still do that in spurts. The Heat have had some real success with Butler over the past several seasons. However, they have also been underwhelming during the regular season. For teams interested in Butler, they will want to feel good about the number of games he can play during the regular season, even if they are a playoff-focused team. Butler will nearing age 36 as he enters free agency in 2025, so giving him a long-term big contract could be a risk.
Summary
Butler has a $50.1 million player option for '25-'26, and if he declines that option he will be an unrestricted free agent with a $54.2 million cap hold and full Bird Rights, meaning the Heat will have no restrictions on re-signing him. Since the Heat will most likely be operating over the cap, and because his cap hold is greater than or equal to his expected starting salary, his cap hold is not really relevant. If Butler opts out, it's likely that he'll want his max starting salary of $54.2 million or a long-term contract on a slightly lower amount. Something like 4-years, $175 million could potentially be in play, but that might even be too much of a paycut compared to just taking the $50 million in '25-'26 and hitting free agency in 2026. Since Butler will be getting more than the full MLE of $14.1 million, only teams with cap space will be able to sign Butler as a free agent. If an over-the-cap team is interested in Butler, sign-and-trade options can be explored, or opt-in-and-trade options. Because of the over-38 rule, Butler cannot sign a 5-year max contract with Miami. The Heat can offer him a 4-year, $242 million max contract, and other teams can offer him a 3-year, $170 million max contract.
Cap Considerations
Paul George (3+1 year max, 2024) Lebron James (1+1 years, $101 million, 2024) Kawhi Leonard (3 years $150 million, 2024)