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2025 Free Agents - John Collins

Collins had a promising start to his career, looking like a potential combo big that could play either power forward or center. It looked like he might have the right combination of shooting potential, lob catching ability, lateral quickness, and rim protection to be versatile on both ends of the court. However, despite being fairly productive and having some success in all these areas, it just hasn't all come together for Collins, and his stock has certainly dipped in recent seasons. Offensively, his outside shooting has been fine at 37% on okay volume (a little over three attempts per game), but overall he isn't someone that is considered a threat from outside. His attempts are almost all open, stand-still looks. The Jazz pretty much decided they couldn't play him next to another traditional big (his minutes playing next to Walker Kessler were disastrous for the Jazz), and they only played him next to bigs that could shoot like Lauri Markkanen or Kelly Olynyk. Defensively, Collins has been pretty disappointing. He can elevate for a big block every now and then, but he hasn't developed the consistent positional awareness and verticality to be a true rim protector. He also simply doesn't have the same size as some of the better rim protectors in the league. The Hawks had pretty poor defenses during most of his time in Atlanta, and the Jazz were the worst defense in the league in '23-'24 with Collins being their starting center most of those games. Collins was traded to the Jazz in 2023 in what was essentially just a salary dump, which showed that nobody liked him enough on his current contract to give the Hawks any real value for him. He spent most of the '23-'24 season with the Jazz relegated to standing in the corner on offense, and just never found his groove with them. It's hard to believe that a team would like him enough to give him an offer worthy of opting out of his current contract for in 2025, so I expect him to opt in and hit free agency in 2026.

Summary

Collins has a $26.6 million player option for '25-'26, and if he declines that option he will be an unrestricted free agent with a $39.9 million cap hold and full Bird Rights, meaning the Jazz will have no restrictions on re-signing him. Since his cap hold is greater than his expected starting salary, his cap hold is not really relevant, as it will either be replaced by his starting salary after he re-signs, or removed when he signs with another team. If Collins opts out, his demanded starting salary will be above the $14.1 million Nontaxpayer Mid-Level Exception, so only teams with cap space will be able to sign him. If Collins and an above-the-cap team have mutual interest, a sign-and-trade could be worked out, or an opt-in and trade.

Cap Considerations

PJ Washington (3 years, $47 million, 2023) Grant Williams (4 years, $53 million, 2023) Richaun Holmes (2 years, $26 million, 2nd year $250k guaranteed, 2024)

Player/Contract Comparison

Potential Teams: Jazz, Pelicans, Grizzlies, Raptors, Wizards

Predicted Contract: Opt In: $26.6 million
If opt out: 2-year, $53 million (2nd year $1 million guaranteed) with the Jazz

Last updated: 8/31/2024

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