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2025 Free Agents - Duncan Robinson

Robinson is one of the Heat's great developmental stories of the last decade, moving from an undrafted prospect into one of the best shooters in the NBA. He really burst onto the scene in the '19-'20 season, shooting 45% from 3 on over eight attempts per game. He signed a 5-year, $90 million contract in 2021, which he hasn't quite played up to in recent seasons as Robinson's play has fluctuated a bit, but during his better times the contract hasn't been that bad for Miami. Robinson's primary skill is as an outside shooter. He's a 40% career 3-point shooter on high volume, and isn't just a standstill spot-up shooter. He can hit shots on the move either coming off pindowns or into handoffs, and has a quick release to get shots off without needing a ton of space. Being 6'8" also helps him get shots off over defenders. His gravity as a shooter frees up screeners, and he has also developed some two-man game chemistry with Bam Adebayo in handoff situations. Robinson has developed his game inside the arc as well. For the first five seasons of his career, over 83% of his shot attempts were 3-pointers, but in '23-'24 only 68% were 3-pointers, and he shot well from two at 58%. He won't break defenders down off the dribble, but he can attack hard closeouts by either getting to the rim, hitting a floater, or stepping into a midrange pullup. His assist rate also took a big leap in '23-'24, as he showed growth in getting in the lane and finding teammates. Defensively, Robinson has some real weaknesses. He isn't very quick laterally, and can get beat off the dribble. He's the type of player that teams can target in the playoffs by forcing him into the action. He isn't disruptive at all, getting very few steals and blocks. His rebounding numbers are pretty poor too. However, Robinson puts in enough effort and has enough size to make him survivable defensively, even in the playoffs. As long as he's hitting shots, his offense does enough to negate his poor defense. Robinson will already be 31 years old as a potential free agent in 2025. I wouldn't expect him to opt out and actually hit free agency in 2025, but if he continues to shoot well (his 1.24 points per shot attempt in '23-'24 was in the 87th percentile among wings, according to Cleaning the Glass), he could have enough interest as a free agent to actually opt out.

Summary

Robinson has a $20.7 million early termination option for '25-'26, and if he exercises that option he will be an unrestricted free agent with a $29.1 million cap hold and full Bird Rights, meaning the Heat will have no restrictions on re-signing him. Since the Heat will most likely be operating over the cap, and because his cap hold is greater than his expected starting salary, his cap hold is not really relevant. Due to the Heat's luxury tax concerns, Robinson could also end up opting out and taking less money now but more money over a long-term contract, similar to what Jrue Holiday and the Celtics did in 2024. If Robinson exercises his option, his demanded starting salary will be above the $14.1 million Nontaxpayer Mid-Level Exception, so only teams with cap space will be able to sign him. If Robinson and an above-the-cap team have mutual interest, a sign-and-trade could be worked out, or an opt-in and trade.

Cap Considerations

Buddy Hield (4 years, $36 million, 2024) Isaiah Joe (4-1 years, $48 million, 2024) Sam Hauser (4 years, $45 million, 2024)

Player/Contract Comparison

Potential Teams: Heat, Magic, Grizzlies, Pacers, Hawks

Predicted Contract: Opt In: $20.7 million
If opt out: 2-year, $35 million with the Heat

Last updated: 9/4/2024

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