Last updated: 9/30/2019
Last updated: 9/30/2019
Last updated: 9/30/2019
2025 Free Agents - Josh Giddey
Giddey established himself as a very good young player right away after being drafted 6th overall in 2021. He started every regular season game he played for the Thunder during the first three seasons of his career. However, some of his weaknesses became more glaring in the playoffs, and he got dropped from the starting lineup near the end of the Thunder's 2024 playoff run. He was then traded to Chicago for Alex Caruso. Giddey's passing is his best skill. He can make just about every pass in the book. He'll make deep hit-aheads in transition, can whip passes around the court off live dribbles with either hand, find shooters off drives, make pinpoint passes to cutters, and he's also a great inbounds passer. His size at 6'8" gives him the ability to see over defenses and find the right angles. Giddey also has great touch and accuracy. He turns it over too much, but you'll generally be okay with that given how often is risky passes work out. From a scoring perspective, Giddey is effective from floater range, but hasn't really been efficient anywhere else on the court. He has solid size for a wing, but doesn't have a ton of explosiveness and has been a below-average finisher at the rim. The outside shooting is the biggest problem though. He has only hit 31% of his 3s on very low volume on just over three attempts per game. We saw in the playoffs that defenses just stopped guarding him, and it clogged the Thunder's offense. If he is essentially a non-threat off the ball, that really affects the level of impact he can have offensively. Defensively, Giddey struggles, and this is another area that becomes more prominant in the playoffs when teams get more judicious in who they attack. He doesn't move his feet well laterally, can get caught playing upright, and beaten off the dribble. He also doesn't put a ton of effort in defensively, and has overall low intensity on that end. Giddey has decent size to guard multiple positions, but isn't very long or disruptive. He does rebound really well on both ends of the ball, making him a legitimate triple double threat. Giddey will still only be 22 years old as a free agent in 2025. We saw some of his warts in the playoffs, but he can still be a very effective player. The worries just come down to if the jump shot will ever come around, or if he will have a Ben Simmons style game that never really develops. Simmons has dealt with serious health issues, so maybe it's not the best comparison, but they have similar weaknesses. Giddey isn't an elite ball-handler, and with his scoring issues, it's hard to make him your primary ball-handler, because good teams will have a better option there (like the Thunder did with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander). And if Giddey is going to be effective as a secondary ball-handler, he needs to be more of a threat off the ball.
Summary
Giddey will be a restricted free agent with an $25.1 million cap hold, $11.1 million Qualifying Offer, and full Bird Rights. I wouldn't expect Giddey' QO to come into play, as he will likely sign a large contract with the Bulls or a large offer sheet elsewhere. Depending on how close the Bulls are to the luxury tax after free agency, if Giddey is brought back by the Bulls on a multi-year contract they could benefit from frontloading his contract, as it could give them additional flexibility in the future. From other teams, Giddey will be looking for a 4-year, $100+ million offer sheet, and it would likely take near that in order for Chicago to not match. In addition, the team signing him to an offer sheet adding a 15% trade bonus, a player option, and some advances on his salary could make it more difficult for Chicago to match. Since Giddey will gets offers above the full MLE, only teams with cap space will be able to sign him, unless a sign-and-trade occurs, which would be complicated by base-year compensation rules.
Cap Considerations
Lonzo Ball (3+1 years, $80 million, 2024) Deni Avdija (4 years, $55 million, 2023) R.J. Barrett (4 years, $107 million, 2022)