Last updated: 9/30/2019
Last updated: 9/30/2019
Last updated: 9/30/2019
2025 Free Agents - Luke Kennard
Kennard provides most of his value as a shooter. He has never shot less than 40% from 3 in a season, and has shot an elite 45% or better each of the past four seasons. He has a really smooth stroke, and can hit open spot-ups or jumpers on the move. He isn't a primary creator, but has enough ball-handling ability to create some space for jumpers, or at least attack a hard closeout or come off a screen and make one or two dribbles before making a play. While he's an effective midrange shooter, he has improved his efficiency in recent years by replacing some of those attempts for more 3-pointers. He posted a career high 68% true shooting in '22-'23. He missed a lot of games with an injury in '23-'24, but did shoot well when he did play. Outside of shooting, Kennard doesn't bring much else to the table. After having some success early in his career, Kennard has struggled in recent years at the rim, and shooting under 55% at the rim over the past three seasons. He doesn't have the burst or athleticism to finish inside. Kennard also isn't much of a play-making for others, posting low assist rates. Defensively, Kennard is below-average. He's good enough to stay in a regular rotation during the regular season, but he won't improve a team's defense, and can be a liability when the games matter the most. We saw that a bit in the 2021 playoffs with the Clippers, as Kennard's minutes dropped in order to give more minutes to two-way guys like Terrance Mann and Nic Batum, among others. He isn't very big for a wing at 6'5", and doesn't have a long wingspan. Overall he just struggles as a one-on-one defender because he is not that quick laterally. Kennard also posts very low steal and block rates. Kennard will be 29 years old as a free agent in 2025, so there's a chance he could show some age-related regression on the back-end of a long-term contract, but I don't think that will be a huge worry for teams at this point.
Summary
Kennard will be an unrestricted free agent with a $17.6 million cap hold and full Bird rights. As the Grizzlies are likely to be operating over the cap, and since his cap hold exceeds the starting salary he will get in free agency, his cap hold is not really relevant. Depending on how close the Grizzlies are to the luxury tax after free agency, if Kennard is brought back by the Grizzlies on a multi-year contract they could benefit from frontloading his contract, as it could give them additional flexibility in the future. For other teams, if Kennard demands a starting salary of more than the full $14.1 million Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception, only teams with cap space will be able to sign him, unless a sign-and-trade is worked out. However, it's possible that Kennard could be had for the full MLE or slightly less, including maybe the $5.7 million Taxpayer MLE, which would make him available to almost every team.
Cap Considerations
Buddy Hield (4 years, $36 million, 2024) Isaiah Joe (4-1 years, $48 million, 2024) Simone Fontecchio (2 year, $16 million, 2024)