As a 6'7" athletic wing with a 7-foot wingspan, Kuminga entered the NBA in 2021 with some elite physical measurements. The main questions on him going into that draft were about his skill development and overall feel for the game on both ends. While he has improved in those areas over the course of his career, and has shown some legitimate star potential, he hasn't fully answered those questions. Kuminga is a dynamic, explosive athlete, and can rise for poster dunks in transition or if he gets an open lane. He has hit 72% of his shots at the rim, which is a very good number for a wing. If the defense is already in rotation and Kuminga can attack a hard closeout, it's hard to stop him. He has also become a pretty good midrange shooter, hitting 42% of his non-paint twos. Kuminga is a 33% 3-point shooter, and if he can improve that it will give him another weapon, which will give him more opportunities to get to the rim if the defense can't leave him open or has to close out hard to him. Kuminga turns it over too much, posting a below-average turnover rate for his position, according to Cleaning the Glass. His assist rate isn't terrible but he's overall a low-assist guy, even though he has improved over the course of his career. In general he just isn't someone that will initiate offense and create shots for others. His ball-handling could also improve, as he doesn't often just break down defenses in isolation situations. He gets a solid number of offensive rebounds. Defensively, Kuminga has been solid, but could be better given his physical tools. He isn't all that disruptive, blocking average steal and block rates. More importantly though, he just hasn't put the level of effort to be a lockdown perimeter defender. He could theoretically be someone that could switch 1-4 and really use his size to bother guards. He also hasn't become a high-level off-ball defender, despite having some secondary rim-protection potential. Kuminga will still be just 22 years old as a free agent in 2025. Given his physical tools and the development he has shown already, I expect him to get some very large offers in free agency. If I had to bet on whether or not Kuminga would ever make an All-Star team, I wouldn't feel great about having to make that bet on either side, and something I'm sure NBA executives will be thinking about before offering him a large contract.

Kuminga will be a restricted free agent with an $22.9 million cap hold, $10.2 million Qualifying Offer, and full Bird Rights. If he starts fewer than 36 games and plays less than 2,000 minutes in the regular season, his QO will drop to $8 million. I wouldn't expect Kuminga' QO to come into play, as he will likely sign a large contract with the Warriors or a large offer sheet elsewhere. Depending on how close the Warriors are to the luxury tax after free agency, if Kuminga is brought back by the Warriors on a multi-year contract they could benefit from frontloading his contract, as it could give them additional flexibility in the future. From other teams, Kuminga will be looking for a 4-year, $125+ million offer sheet, and it would likely take near that in order for Golden State to not match. In addition, the team signing him to an offer sheet adding a 15% trade bonus, a player option, and some advances on his salary could make it more difficult for Golden State to match. Since Kuminga will gets offers above the full MLE, only teams with cap space will be able to sign him, unless a sign-and-trade occurs, which would be complicated by base-year compensation rules.

Jaden McDaniels (5 years, $131 million, 2023) Jaylen Brown (4 years, $114 million, 2019) Franz Wagner (5 year max ($224 million), 2024)