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2025 Free Agents - Larry Nance, Jr.

Offensively, Nance does most of his scoring damage as the roll man in pick-and-roll or just catching dump-offs around the rim or off cuts. He has finished well at the rim for most of his career, and hit over 70% at the rim each of the past three seasons, according to Cleaning the Glass. Nance is a threat as a short roll player or as a lob threat. He hasn't been able to expand his range and stretch the floor on a consistent basis, but there were a couple years in Cleveland where he shot 36% from three on decent volume for a big, so there's a chance he could still develop that part of his game more. He shot 43% from 3 in '23-'24 on only one attempt per game. Nance's scoring isn't really how he provides value though. He's one of those guys that just does a lot of little things to help winning. He sets good screens, and has some good passing ability for a big. He makes quick decisions and keeps the ball moving. He was a really good offensiver rebounder early in his career, but that has regressed a bit in recent years. Defensively, Nance isn't a great rim protector, but he can sky to get some big blocks and has enough size to guard most centers. Power forwards that can scale up and play center have become very important in today's game, and Nance can fit that role. He is also quick enough laterally to guard on the perimeter. He has good awareness on defense as far as rotating and being in the right spot, and overall I believe that Nance has the ability to be a contributor to an elite defense, even if he isn't the driver that makes that defense elite. Nance will be 32 years old as a free agent in 2025, so regression could be a worry. He already doesn't get as many dunks as he used to, so if a decline in athleticism causes him to struggle to finish at the rim, that could really hurt his offensively value since he hasn't developed a reliable outside jumper. He also could lose value as a rim protecter if he isn't able to contest above the rim. However, I think Nance will still be a good contributor for a couple years at least, and wouldn't be worried about giving him a decent-sized short-term contract.

Summary

Nance will be an unrestricted free agent with a $21.3 million cap hold and full Bird Rights, meaning the Hawks will have no restrictions on re-signing him. Since the Hawks will most likely be operating over the cap, and since his cap hold exceeds his likely starting salary, his cap hold is not really relevant. Depending on how close the Hawks are to the luxury tax after free agency, if Nance is brought back by the Hawks on a multi-year contract they could benefit from frontloading his contract, as it could give them additional flexibility in the future. For other teams, if Nance demands a starting salary of more than the full $14.1 million Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception, only teams with cap space will be able to sign him, unless a sign-and-trade is worked out. However, it's likely that Nance could be had for the full MLE or slightly less.

Cap Considerations

Steven Adams (2 years, $35 million, 2023) Ivica Zubac (3 years, $33 million, 2022) Obi Toppin (4 years, $60 million, 2024)

Player/Contract Comparison

Potential Teams: Hawks, Knicks, 76ers, Kings, Rockets

Predicted Contract: 2-year, $25 million with the Hawks

Last updated: 7/28/2024

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