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2025 Free Agents - Julius Randle

Randle is one of the more polarizing players in the NBA. Despite objectively having some real success in recent seasons, even making three All-Star teams and two All-NBA teams in the past four seasons, he isn't seen as a consensus star around the league. While he is a talented offensive player, his fit isn't always that clear on a really good team. From an efficiency perspective Randle is about average, probably slightly below-average for a forward or a big, posting a 55% true shooting since joining the Knicks. However, his role needs to be taken into context as well. Not many guys at Randle's size have the usage and creation load that Randle has, and not many guys can break down defenses off the dribble and create for himself and others like Randle can. He doesn't have a ton of moves, but has a good enough handle to beat defenders off the dribbles with quick moves. If he gets downhill, he isn't quite Zion-like or Giannis-like, but he is a tier below that when powering through smaller defenders and finishing at the rim. After shooting 60% at the rim from '19-'22, he has improved to 68% the last two seasons. Randle has also averaged just under five assists per game with the Knicks. He's not a Jokic or Sabonis-level passer, but his assist rate is comparable to some high-level wing creators that are good but not great passers. Randle won't manipulate defenses with his passing, but he can make the right read when he collapses the defense. He can get some tunnel vision at times, and his turnover rate isn't great. From a shooting perspective, Randle is below average at 34% from 3 for his career. That's where his fit as an off-ball player can be tricky. If he's not being guarded when spotting up, defenses can clog the paint, and he won't be able to attack closeouts as well if defenders know they can close out short to him. Randle hasn't been someone that scorer much off cuts, but the potential is there given his strength when finishing at the rim, along with having some touch on floaters. He has a solid faceup midrange jumper, but it isn't a deadly option. He has taken fewer off-the-dribble long twos in recent seasons. Defensively, Randle is below-average at best. He hardly gets any steals or blocks - his block and steal rates in '23-'24 were in the 12th and 4th percentile for his position, respectively, according to Cleaning the Glass, and those were fairly in line with his numbers since coming to New York. He isn't that quick laterally, and doesn't put in a ton of effort as an on-ball defender. He isn't a high-level off-ball defender either when it comes to making rotations. He doesn't provide the level of rim protection that would allow him to thrive as a small-ball center. Overall, Randle is a talented offensive player that has some flaws. The Knicks have had a top-10 offense since acquiring Jalen Brunson, including having the second best offense in the league in '22-'23, but were below-average in the preceding years with Randle as the number one option. It's clear that he's not a number-one option on a great team, but can he be the number two option? If not, can he do enough besides scoring to be a elite role player? Randle has the potential to get a big payday in free agency, but I also wouldn't be surprised if the market was a little dry and he ended up opting in. He will also be 30 years old as a free agent in 2025, so teams could be worried about regression on a long-term contract.

Summary

Randle has a $30.9 million player option for '25-'26, and if he declines that option he will be an unrestricted free agent with a $50 million cap hold and full Bird Rights, meaning the Timberwolves will have no restrictions on re-signing him. Since the Timberwolves will most likely be operating over the cap, and because his cap hold is greater than his expected starting salary, his cap hold is not really relevant. Since Randle's starting salary will most likely be above the $14.1 million Nontaxpayer Mid-Level Exception, only teams with cap space will be able to sign him. If Randle and an above-the-cap team have mutual interest, a sign-and-trade, or opt-in-and-trade could be worked out.

Cap Considerations

Pascal Siakam (4 year, $189 million max, 2024), Jerami Grant (4+1 years, $160 million, 2023), DeMar DeRozan (3 years, $74 million, 2024)

Player/Contract Comparison

Potential Teams: Timberwolves, Rockets, Clippers, Hornets, Grizzlies

Predicted Contract: Opt In: $32.2 million
If opt out: 3-year, $105 million with the Timberwolves

Last updated: 10/13/2024

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