Last updated: 9/30/2019
Last updated: 9/30/2019
Last updated: 9/30/2019
2025 Free Agents - Rayan Rupert
Rupert is a wing with great physical measurements at 6'6" with a 7'2" wingspan. He showed some awesome defensive potential in New Zealand playing for the NBL, and was drafted 43rd by the Trailblazers in 2023. He got some time as a rookie, playing over 500 minutes of non-garbage time, according to Cleaning the Glass, but a lot of that came late in the season when the Blazers were in tank mode. Rupert uses his elite physical frame to be a harrassing on-ball defender. He pressures ball-handlers, moves his feet well, fights through screens, and overall can just make things really difficult for the offense. He doesn't get as many steals or blocks as you would think, but he stays really solid on defense. Offensively, Rupert needs to improve in order to stick around in the NBA. If you total his NBA and G-League minutes as a rookie, he shot under 40% from two, but a solid 37.5% from three. The 3-point shooting is much better than the 23% he shot in the NBL, and defenses often would leave him open, so hopefully that improved level of shooting continues. Rupert has a chance to become a 3-and-D wing that has become so coveted in today's game, but still has some room to grow in order to get there. Rupert will still only be 21 years old as a potential free agent in 2025, so there's reason to believe he can make major strides.
Summary
Rupert has a $2.2 million team option for 2025-2026, and if that is declined he will be a restricted free agent with a $2.6 million cap hold and Qualifying Offer, and the Trailblazers will have his Early Bird rights. There's also a chance that the Trailblazers do not give Rupert a QO, which would make him an unrestricted free agent. If the Trailblazers re-sign Rupert using the Early-Bird Exception, they could offer him a starting salary of up to 105% of the average salary this past season (roughly $13 million), which should be enough to retain him. However, if they wanted to do this, they would likely just pick up his option, especially considering he would still be a restricted free agent in 2026. Since Rupert will only have two years of service, he will be subject to the Gilbert Arenas provision if he is given a QO. This means that any offer sheet he signs with a team besides Portland can have a starting maximum salary of $14.1 million, but the third and potentially fourth years of that contract can have a large jump (up to the max). His cap hit would then be the average salary over the life of the contract. If the Trailblazers match, they could choose for his cap hit to either be his actual salary per season or the average over the life of the contract, provided the average fits within the Early Bird Exception or cap space. I do not expect the Arenas provision to come into play for Rupert, as I think any offers for him would fit within the full Non-Taxpayer MLE over the length of the contract. If there was that much interest in him, the Trailblazers would probably just pick up his option anyway. There's also a chance that he's an unrestricted free agent with only minimum offers, especially if the Trailblazers decline his option.
Cap Considerations
Josh Minott (3rd year minimum non-guaranteed salary not waived, 2024) Jordan Walsh (2nd year minimum non-guaranteed salary not waived, 2024) Ricky Council IV (2nd year minimum non-guaranteed salary not waived, 2024)