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2025 Free Agents - Jalen Suggs

After a rough rookie season where Suggs shot 22% from three and 44% from two, Suggs has really broken out in the last couple seasons, and looks to be a legitimate starting guard going forward. The biggest improvement for him has been from outside, as he shot 40% in '23-'24. He also upped his 3-point volume, as half of his field goal attempts were 3-pointers. That led him to having a very good true shooting of 60%, especially with him improving his rim finishing from 59% his first two seasons to 68% in '23-'24. The offense isn't the biggest strength for Suggs though yet - it's the defense. He made 2nd team All-Defense in '23-'24, and looks like he may be one of the best defensive guards in the league going forward. He is a very disciplined defender, moving his feet well on-ball and staying attentive off-ball. Suggs is disruptive, posting very high steal and block rates for a guard. The other thing to think about with Suggs is his ceiling offensively. Right now, he has a pretty low usage rate playing next to Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero, so he hasn't had to be a real driver of offense. Could he do that if needed? He has off-the-dribble skills, and can run pick-and-roll, but is he good enough that you want him doing that a lot? If Suggs continues to shoot 40% from 3 or close to that going forward, he could be an elite role player. If he's closer to his career rate of 33%, that could limit his effectiveness playing off the ball if that continues to be his role.

Summary

Suggs will be a restricted free agent with an $27.6 million cap hold, $12.2 million Qualifying Offer, and full Bird Rights. I wouldn't expect Suggs' QO to come into play, as he will likely sign a large contract with the Magic or a large offer sheet elsewhere. Depending on how close the Magic are to the luxury tax after free agency, if Suggs is brought back by the Magic on a multi-year contract they could benefit from frontloading his contract, as it could give them additional flexibility in the future. From other teams, Suggs will be looking for a 4-year, $125+ million offer sheet, and it would likely take near that in order for Orlando to not match. In addition, the team signing him to an offer sheet adding a 15% trade bonus, a player option, and some advances on his salary could make it more difficult for Orlando to match. Since Suggs will gets offers above the full MLE, only teams with cap space will be able to sign him, unless a sign-and-trade occurs, which would be complicated by base-year compensation rules.

Cap Considerations

Marcus Smart (4 years, $77 million, 2021) Dejounte Murray (3+1 years $124 million, 2023) Derrick White (3+1 years, $121 million, 2024)

Player/Contract Comparison

Potential Teams: Magic, Nets, Wizards, Spurs, Clippers

Predicted Contract: 5-year, $135 million with the Magic

Actual Contract: 5-year, $150 million with the Magic

Suggs signed an extension prior to the season, and it was for slightly more than I had projected, but still within the range that I was not surprised by the number.

Last updated: 10/22/2024

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