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2025 Free Agents - Matisse Thybulle

The second he entered the league, Thybulle was one of the more exciting defensive players in the NBA. He blocks jumpers, picks the pocket of ball-handlers, and jumps passing lanes. He made 2nd team All-Defense in both 2021 and 2022, which is rare for someone in their second and third seasons, respectively. However, that defensive disruption comes at a cost, and his offensive game needs to develop if he's going to be a starting-level wing. Thybulle has good size for a wing at 6'5" and a 6'11" wingspan. He uses those long arms to contest jump shots, and he's particularly good at fighting over screens and contesting shots from behind, even blocking them. When you have a drop coverage big, that skill is massively valuable. It allows the center to stay home and protect the rim while not giving up a bunch of easy pull-up jumpers. Thybulle has good hands and uses his long wingspan to poke the ball away from ball-handlers. He can dig down as a help defender and get steals. He also has good anticipation when jumping passing lanes. Thybulle has had the highest steal rate for a wing four of his five seasons, and the highest block rate for a wing two out of his five seasons as well, according to Cleaning the Glass, and was right near the top in the other seasons as well. However, Thybulle gambles a lot on defense, and it often puts him out of position. He can put himself out of the play by trying to jump the passing lane. He also sometimes depends too much on his hands to make a play, and doesn't move his feet to just stay solid on defense, so he's not a lock-down defender as an on-ball guy. He can also get too aggressive and foul jump-shooters. He's still a positive defender because of that disruptive play-making mentioned earlier, but his failed risks stop him from being an elite defender and someone that is in contention for Defensive Player of the Year. Offensively, Thybulle's biggest swing skill is his outside shooting. He's only a 33% 3-point shooter, and will pass up a lot of open shots. Defenses are happy to leave him open, which forces his team to play 4-on-5 at times on offense. Thybulle's efficiency numbers aren't bad, as he had a 59% true shooting in '21-'22 due mostly to his excellent 76% finishing at the rim, but he still needs to be able to space the floor or otherwise he will be an offensive liability. He also regressed and only hit 59% at the rim in '22-'23 and '23-'24, and his true shooting has never been above 55% aside from '21-'22. Thybulle doesn't have a great handle and isn't a play-maker for others, so he doesn't bring much to the table offensively overall, although he does get a good amount of offensive rebounds.  Thybulle came into the league on the older side, so he will already be 28 years old as a potential free agent in 2025. That may suggest that he doesn't have a lot of room for improvement, but we have seen guys develop their outside shot later in their careers, but the time is running out for any real expectation of that going forward.

Summary

Thybulle has an $11.6 million player option for '25-'26, and if he exercises that option he will be an unrestricted free agent with a $22 million cap hold and full Bird Rights, meaning the Trailblazers will have no restrictions on re-signing him. Since the Trailblazers will most likely be operating over the cap, and because his cap hold is greater than his expected starting salary, his cap hold is not really relevant. For other teams, if Thybulle demands a starting salary of more than the full $14.1 million Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception, only teams with cap space will be able to sign him, unless a sign-and-trade is worked out, or an opt-in-and-trade. It's likely however that Thybulle could be had for the full MLE or slightly less, but he probably wouldn't opt out and settle for the lower salary of the Room MLE, Taxpayer MLE, or Bi-Annual Exception.

Cap Considerations

Haywood Highsmith (2 years, $11 million, 2024) Gary Payton II (2+1 years, $26 million, 2022) Kris Dunn (3-1 years, $16 million, 2024)

Player/Contract Comparison

Potential Teams: Trailblazers, Hawks, Pacers, Spurs, Kings

Predicted Contract: Opt In: $11.6 million
If opt out: 2-year, $25 million with the Hawks

Last updated: 8/29/2024

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