The Case for the Over

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The Nuggets won 57 games last season, so they would need to take a significant step back to go under this line. Is losing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope going to make them lose seven fewer games in the regular season? They don’t have the same awesome starting and closing unit, but maybe can piece enough together to replace him. There were similar questions last season when the Nuggets lost Bruce Brown and Jeff Green, and they did fine in the regular season without them.
 

Their young players like Julian Strawther, Payton Watson, and Christian Braun could take strides. 
 

They still have Nikola Jokic, who is probably the best player in the world, and never seems to never get hurt, and could single-handedly push them over this number. The Nuggets have beaten the Vegas over-under line every season since Jokic entered the league. 
 

Dario Saric might be the best backup center they have had, and could help them survive the non-Jokic minutes that have killed them for years. Russell Westbrook could give them a jolt off the bench.

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The Case for the Under

 

Their depth could really hurt them. They just continue to lose guys without really replacing them. If the young guys don’t develop until legitimate rotation players, they could be giving a lot of minutes to guys that are actively hurting them. Saric has a solid theoretical skill set but was just okay for the Warriors last year. Russell Westbrook can go either way and may not fit without shooting around him.
 

Jamal Murray has dealt with injuries, struggled in the playoffs last year and was bad in the Olympics. If he’s not playing at an All-Star level, the Nuggets could really struggle to get to 50 wins. 
 

They have some structural flaws that could really hurt them. They don’t have a lot of shooting on the team, and not much rim protection. 
 

They were pretty healthy last year, with 7 of their top 8 players playing in 73 games or more. If they get worse injury luck, they could take a dip in the standings. 
 

As with other contending teams or teams that are more focused on the playoffs than the regular season, they could rest guys more or focus more on experimentation and development rather than maximizing regular season wins. They could play younger players more in hopes of getting them ready for the playoffs, as they will need someone to fill the bench roles come playoff time. They could experiment with different lineups or schemes in order to be more versatile in the playoffs. They could take the regular season a little bit easier in order to be fresh for the playoffs again.

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Conclusion

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I’m just really worried about this team’s depth. I think they have the top-end talent to beat this line, but I don’t really trust their bench, and if they suffer even a couple weeks here and there of injuries to their starters, they could really struggle to win games. I don’t feel great about betting against Jokic, but I’m leaning under.